Today's Hard|Forum Post
Today's Hard|Forum Post

Friday October 12, 2018

Memory Prices Could Fall 20% in 2019

DRAMeXchange says that DRAM prices could "drop by 15~20% YoY in 2019 due to the weak price trend of server DRAM." The researchers point a finger towards the sluggish smartphone market and an Intel CPU shortage as major contributors to the 2019 price drop. While some manufacturers are trying to slow down expansion, the industry's "bit output" is still expected to increase by 22% thanks to process advances and yield improvements. Meanwhile, flash memory prices are expected to drop as much as 30% thanks to increased 3D NAND production capacity, "fierce" competition, and reduced smartphone demand.

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DRAMeXchange now anticipates continuing price decline during the traditional slow season of 1H19. Because of the seasonal headwinds, shipment forecasts for smartphones, notebooks and tablets are fairly conservative for the first half of next year, together with the following-up impacts of China-US trade war. The gap between supply and demand may be moderated if the NAND Flash manufacturers postpone their capacity expansion and transition to 96-layer 3D NAND devices. By 4Q19, the overall production capacity of NAND Flash is expected to grow by 5% YoY, of which the capacity of 3D NAND production would increase significantly by 20% YoY. Hence, for the NAND Flash manufacturers' capital expenditure, DRAMeXchange now expects further downward revision for their spending plans for 2019.

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